bhaskar saikia

Today—24 November 2025—marks a significant milestone in my life. Exactly 20 years ago, on this date in 2005, I made my first stock purchase. I was still a teenager then, and investing in the stock market was far from common at that age. But I already had opened a demat account, and my father lent me a sizable sum to make that first investment. It felt bold and unconventional.

Between 2005 and 2008, that investment grew, giving me a sense of confidence—until the global financial crisis struck. The 2008 crash hit me hard, and by 2009, everything I had built was gone. That loss was crushing.

But that moment presented me a choice:

1. Conclude that the stock market is a scam, or
2. Make a sincere effort to understand how financial markets actually work.

Thankfully, I chose the second. And it remains one of the best decisions of my life.

Why Investing Matters

Over the past two decades, I’ve learned that investing isn’t about chasing quick profits; it’s about understanding the world, understanding oneself, and growing steadily through discipline.

Two reasons make investing essential:

1. To stay ahead of inflation, which silently eats into our purchasing power.
2. To escape the rat race, enabling long-term financial freedom.

But let me be clear: stock investing isn’t for everyone.

Without knowledge, patience, and discipline, investing can become dangerously risky. It demands commitment—studying markets, tracking financial news, and understanding the forces that shape global capital flows.

A Tumultuous Day in the Markets

As I write this, today, the global financial markets stand on the edge of a sharp decline. The sharp rise in Japan’s long-term bond yields over the past week—along with strong signals from the Bank of Japan that a rate hike is imminent—is set to trigger a massive unwinding (selling) of the yen carry trade, the largest carry trade in the world. As borrowing costs in Japan rise and the yen strengthens, financial institutions will be forced to close positions across the globe, especially in the United States. And when the US markets fall, the rest of the world follows.

History has shown us this pattern:

1. The dot-com bubble burst (1999–2000) in the US wiped out most companies across the world, which was greatly influenced by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
2. The 2008–2009 US housing market meltdown was fueled by credit default swaps and reckless leverage.

Today, markets are precariously balanced on ultra-high valuations of AI and tech companies. If a correction or meltdown comes, the spark might very well be the Japanese rate hike.

Only time will tell whether my assessment is right or wrong. But one thing is certain: this week the global markets might fall, and all indicators are pointing in that direction.

Crashes Create Opportunities

Despite the coming chaos, I feel composed. Investing is a long-term pursuit, and market crashes often provide rare opportunities (such as the CoVID lockdowns) to buy quality companies at fair valuations. If the markets fall sharply during these months, I will be watching the power generation sector. Our modern digital life—AI, IoT, high-speed rail, data centers—runs on electricity. The future will only demand more of it, and strong power companies will stand at the center of that growth.

What 20 Years Have Taught Me

There’s a saying: “In the stock market, the first 10 years you lose money but teaches you lessons, the next 10 years help you recover, and the final 10 years really reward you with compounding.”

Looking back, I see the truth in that.

1. I’ve taken my losses.
2. I’ve learned my lessons.
3. I’ve recovered.

And now, 20 years have passed since the day I called up my broker (yes, back then, you have to give instructions, with PoA, to your stock broker to buy stocks) for that first “Buy” instruction.

The next decade?

I’m curious, hopeful, and quietly excited to see what it holds.

Here’s to the journey—past, present, and future.